There are many ways of predicting how players and teams will perform in the upcoming season. Even experts agree projecting player performance is more guess work than science. So in what is a very unscientific method of determining future performance I looked at the Minnesota Twins starting pitchers and how statistic guru Bill James has projected them to do this year. I took his numbers and then went with what my gut said each pitcher will have for total wins by the end of the season. Again, this is guesstimating and just for fun. Bill James' projections are in parenthesis for starting pitchers only.
- Kevin Slowey: 14 wins (11-10)
- Scott Baker: 15 wins (12-10)
- Carl Pavano: 10 wins (10-12)
- Nick Blackburn: 12 wins (11-12)
- Fransisco Liriano: 10 wins (8-6)
- Jon Rauch: 4 wins
- Joe Nathan: 2 wins
- Jose Mijares: 2 wins
- Matt Guerrier: 3 wins
- Brian Duensing: 8 wins
- Jesse Crain: 2 wins
- Pat Neshek: 2 wins
- Others: 7 wins
This would be a 91 win season for the Twins and most likely good enough to win their division. The team would have an increase of 5 wins over their 2009 record before the extra win from game 163 is factored in. The one glaring issue I have with these projections is envisioning getting 18 wins from a Liriano/Duensing combination. I can see 14 wins much easier from them, but without really knowing what the rotation will look like who knows? To get to 91 wins the pitching will obviously need to be strong and consistant, but eliminating the offensive black hole at second base is a must and solidifying third base is a close second. Runs need to be scored to break the 90 wins plateau or the Twins will quickly become an 85 win team fighting for a playoff spot.
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