No More Adventures In Leftfielding?

I was listening to AM 1500's broadcast of Twinsfest on Saturday and was struck by an interview that took place with Twins leftfielder Delmon Young. When the topic of if Young would miss the Metrodome was asked he was very clear that he never could see the ball against the roof and especially during day games. Young didn't just say one sentence, but was empathic in his dislike for the roof and how it caused him problems seeing the ball. Could moving outdoors transform Delmon Young from a very poor leftfielder to just a poor leftfielder? Was the Metrodome roof Delmon Young's kryptonite? All kidding aside the days of seeing him as an unwatchable force with a glove may be over. Look at these statistics regarding Delmon Young's fielding.

• In 2006 Young played 30 games/252 innings in right field. This is a small sample size, but his UZR/150 was 17.9. This is the runs above average he was rated per 150 games played. Delmon is seen as an above average outfielder in his first season.
• In 2007 Young played 133 games/1,134 innings in right field. With an appropriate sample size his defensive issues were shown, but only to a tune of 3.0 for his UZR/150. Delmon is rated a slightly above average outfielder here. Young also played 29 games/242.2 innings in centerfield. He must have been a disaster because he had a (shield the children's eyes)UZR/150 of -44.7! I'm assuming he was moved to right field after this and then traded to the Twins in the offseason.
• In 2008 the Twins moved Young to left field under the teflon sky of the Metrodome. He played 151 games/1,324 innings there. His UZR/150 plummeted to -14.9. Delmon can no longer be considered an average fielder, he's letting an additional 15 runs to score a year.
• In 2009 Young continues to play left field where he logs 98 games/806.2 innings. A severe cut in playing time, but the UZR/150 continues to go the wrong direction stopping at an eye averting -25.6! Unbelievably he let 25 runs score that shouldn't have.

It may be hard to conceive, but young Delmon has gone from a +3 runs above average outfielder to a -25.6 runs below average statue. Is it possible he can take baby steps and become a UZR/150 -10.0 outfielder by just moving outside to Target Field? I think he can, but if he can't it may be time to put his glove wherever the White Sox put Frank Thomas' glove years ago.

Projecting Home Runs For the 2010 Minnesota Twins

Jim Thome's massive swings will now be a part of the upcoming Minnesota Twins season. His signing started me thinking about the number of home runs the team would hit this year. I believe Thome will get 400 plate appearances this season, which is more than many fans feel he will see. Here are how each player will fair in terms of hitting home runs along with their increase or decrease in home runs from last year. Far from scientific, but then again what projection is scientific?

Denard Span: 8 (+0)
JJ Hardy: 22 (+11)
Joe Mauer: 23 (-5)
Justin Morneau: 29 (-1)
Jason Kubel: 30 (+2)
Michael Cuddyer: 24 (-8)
Delmon Young: 9 (-4)
Brendan Harris: 4 (-2)
Nick Punto: 1 (+0)
Jim Thome: 21 (-2)
Bench: 8

Projected 2010 team total: 179 home runs

The team's 2009 total was 172 home runs so 2010 should see a slight increase in home runs. If Target Field becomes a favorable park for hitters these numbers could increase to possibly 190 still a far cry from the club record of 225 home runs hit by the Twins in 1963. Needless to say facing the Twins this year will be a difficult task for pitchers because most of the lineup will be able to drive the ball especially when Thome is in the lineup. Replace Harris with Danny Valencia at third base and add about 10 additional home runs from his bat alone. Finally, if Target Field proves to be hitter friendly and a few Twins add onto the home run totals I projected above fans will be following a team that will have hit over 200 home runs in 2010. That should put more than enough runs on the board for the team to win 90+ games.

Really...Again?

It happened again? Yes, Viking fans took repeated punches to the gut with another winning field goal in overtime, an interception with only seconds remaining, fumble after fumble and a crushing 12 men on the field penalty. I thought the pieces were in place this time. Brett told me that over and over on the radio. I guess they were, but the Vikings kept dropping them. Are the Minnesota Vikings a cursed team? No, just a football team that can't make that one big play to seal the deal. It's been thirty-three long years since a Super Bowl trip. What agony awaited them if they had made the journey? Actually, the most painful part is I feel the Vikings would have beaten the Colts in the Super Bowl. Instead we have five straight painful NFC Championship losses in a row for the group of purple. Others before us have been down this inglorious road. In 1977 former Star Tribune columnist Jim Klobuchar wrote a book after the Vikings lost to the Raiders in the Super Bowl titled "Will the Vikings Ever Win the Super Bowl?" That question can now be answered...unfortunately no. The Vikings are the Red Sox before 2004. That is our fate.

Twins Greatest Hitting Seasons #41-50

Yes, this was supposed to be a continuing segment a few months ago and I left off at #45. My short attention span didn't get me very far the first time, so I will shorten the commentary and simply present the facts. What are the facts? I looked at the OPS+ numbers for each Twins season and simply ranked hitters from one to fifty since we are approaching the 50th season of Twins baseball. OPS+ is an effective way of gauging how effective a hitter is because it takes batting average and slugging percentage and puts it into a nice number that can be judged on how far it is away from 100, which is the number an average hitter would earn. The difficulty of hitting in a particular season or the inverse being how easy it was to hit in a season is factored in. This makes comparing how Harmon Killebrew hit in 1967 (OPS+ of 174) to Kirby Puckett in 1991 (OPS+ of 119) easy. Killebrew was a whopping 74% better than the average hitter in 1967 and Puckett, while great in 1991, was only 19% better than the average hitter. Killebrew crushes him in the comparison. Two final notes, I had 500 plate appearances as the minimum to qualify in these rankings and any OPS+ ties were resolved by looking at the regular OPS number which is the addition of the OBP and SLG.

• #41 Harmon Killebrew 1972/OPS+ 138: The last decent year the Killer had. Put up .231/.367/.450 along with 26 HR and 74 RBI. He did walk 94 times showing pitchers were still preoccupied with thoughts of clouts from his past.
  
• #42 Justin Morneau 2008/OPS+ 137: Hit 23 HR and had 129 RBI. His overall .300/.374/.499 line hides a .267 second half batting average. Did play in all 163 games.


• #43 Joe Mauer 2008/OPS+ 137: Rebounded from a subpar for him year in 2007 to have a .328/.413/.451 season. He walked 84 times, led the league in hitting and had a season that he'll probably duplicate many more times in his career.


• #44 Tony Oliva 1970/OPS+ 137: Tony had league leading 204 hits and 34 doubles. Had a rare injury free season in playing 157 games. Hit 23 HR and had 107 RBI with a .325/.364/.514. Twins won division and Oliva came in 2nd in MVP voting.


• #45 Jimmie Hall 1963/OPS+ 136: Forgotten Twin by many fans because this season was his best as a pro. As a rookie hit 33 HR and had 80 RBI to go along with .260/.342/.521. Despite this great year Hall finished just 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting. His 33 HR in his rookie season without a single at bat in any previous season is still an American League record.
  
• #46 Tony Oliva 1966/OPS+ 136: Despite ranking high in many of the American League statistical categories and leading the AL in hits for the third year in a row, Oliva slumped down the stretch. He took a batting average in the .320s into August, but endured a 5 for 41 slump in August. 1966 was another year of personal accolades for Oliva. He won his first and only Gold Glove of his career for his play in right field, he was a member of the American League All Star team and came in 6th in the MVP voting. His final line was: .307/.353/.502.


• #47 Justin Morneau 2009/OPS+ 135: Despite batting just .201 in 174 at bats after the All Star break Justin Morneau still had the 48th best season at the plate in team history. Fans may disagree since they can still recall many disappointing at bats Morneau had in the second half of the season in addition with his missing the last three weeks of the season with a stress fracture in his back. With that said, his first half statistics are what carries his season into the top 50 in team history. In that first half Morneau batted: .311/.390/.575 with 21 home runs, 70 RBI and 44 walks, but ended with .274/.363/.516.

• #48 Bob Allison 1967/OPS+ 135: The statistics right handed batter Bob Allison put up in 1967 may not seem that remarkable in the offense orientated era baseball currently finds itself in, but they stand out in Twins' history. The Twins as a team in 1967 batted .240 and that was third best in the American League behind Detroit at .243 and Boston with .255. The average American League team batting average in 1967 was .236, a far cry from the AL average of .267 for 2009. 1967 was close to the bottoming out for hitters or the pinnacle for pitchers depending on how you look at it. In 1968 the American League average for batting was .230 and the result was the mound was lowered to reduce some of the advantage pitchers had and the strike zone was reduced. All of these considerations need to be looked at when analyzing Bob Allison's terrific .258/.356/.470 for the 1967 season.


• #49 Earl Battey 1963/OPS+ 134: The 1963 season is Battey's only appearance in the top 50 hitting seasons in team history. In 1963 he was an All Star and came in 7th in the MVP voting. In his career Battey was a 3 time Gold Glove winner and 4 time All Star. In the 1965 All Star game at Metropolitan Stadium he received the most votes of any American League All Star and finished the year with a .285/.369/.476 line.

• #50 Tony Oliva 1969/OPS+ 133: Tony Oliva was third in the AL with a batting average of .309, was named an All Star. His final numbers were: .309/.355/.496. Despite winning 97 games the Twins fell to the eventual World Series champions Baltimore Orioles in the League Championship Series 3-0 in games. Oliva's bat was not the problem in the ALCS. He batted .385/.429/.769 with one home run in the series.

Anthony Slama: Let the Audition Begin

Obviously Minnesota Twins minor league pitching sensation Anthony Slama has made someone in the front office angry. His minor league numbers are staggering, but as of now at age 25 he has not pitched an inning in the Major Leagues. Rather ridiculous when you think of the pitching difficulties the Twins faced last season. The 6'3"Slama must get ample time with the big club this year or he should be traded while he still has value. Joe Nathan is under contract for the Twins through 2011 with a club option for 2012 at a hefty $12.5 million. At that point Nathan will be 37 and price and age should make him expendable. By then Anthony Slama should have spent two years in the Twins' bullpen adjusting to Major League hitting and getting ready to move into the closer role in 2012. It's a job Slama has been training for throughout the minor leagues and with amazing success. Here are his statistics as a bullpen stopper in the minors:

13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and 3.66 K/BB ratio. The walks have been going the wrong way the last 2 years though.

WHIP of 1.04 for career and an ERA of 1.86, but again ERA has gone the wrong way the last two years at around 2.50.

Slama has given up 5.7 hits per 9 innings pitched.

He's given up only 5 home runs in 183.2 innings pitched and all of those came last year.

Rotoexperts.com is quoted as saying, "Slama’s repertoire includes a slider, changeup and his out pitch, an 88-92 MPH fastball." That fastball needs another 3-4 mph for him to fit the closer role ideally. A strike against him.

The lack of a Nathan like 95 mph fastball is a real concern. That isn't something that can be developed. His slider is his admitted out pitch, but without seeing it I doubt it reminds anyone of Steve Carlton's. Despite these issues Slama should get a real chance to pitch with the Twins in 2010. If the next two years proves he's not capable of filling the closer role, go in another direction, but at least let the experiment begin this season.

Guessitimating the Minnesota Twins 2010 Win Total

There are many ways of predicting how players and teams will perform in the upcoming season. Even experts agree projecting player performance is more guess work than science. So in what is a very unscientific method of determining future performance I looked at the Minnesota Twins starting pitchers and how statistic guru Bill James has projected them to do this year. I took his numbers and then went with what my gut said each pitcher will have for total wins by the end of the season. Again, this is guesstimating and just for fun. Bill James' projections are in parenthesis for starting pitchers only.

• Kevin Slowey: 14 wins (11-10)
• Scott Baker: 15 wins (12-10)
• Carl Pavano: 10 wins (10-12)
• Nick Blackburn: 12 wins (11-12)
• Fransisco Liriano: 10 wins (8-6)
• Jon Rauch: 4 wins
• Joe Nathan: 2 wins
• Jose Mijares: 2 wins
• Matt Guerrier: 3 wins
• Brian Duensing: 8 wins
• Jesse Crain: 2 wins
• Pat Neshek: 2 wins
• Others: 7 wins

This would be a 91 win season for the Twins and most likely good enough to win their division. The team would have an increase of 5 wins over their 2009 record before the extra win from game 163 is factored in. The one glaring issue I have with these projections is envisioning getting 18 wins from a Liriano/Duensing combination. I can see 14 wins much easier from them, but without really knowing what the rotation will look like who knows? To get to 91 wins the pitching will obviously need to be strong and consistant, but eliminating the offensive black hole at second base is a must and solidifying third base is a close second. Runs need to be scored to break the 90 wins plateau or the Twins will quickly become an 85 win team fighting for a playoff spot.

It's Time To Do the Right Thing

Mark McGwire now admits using steroids throughout his career including the 1998 season when he broke Roger Maris' single season home run record of 61. Credit McGwire for going public and admitting his guilt, but he is just part of an era that has torn the game of baseball down in such historic fashion there is nothing to compare it to. At this point Major League Baseball needs to do the right thing and return the single season home run record back to Roger Maris' 61 home runs. This is where the record should be and what many fans view as the true record anyway. Stop playing the innocent until proven absolutely, positively guilty game and then still doing nothing. Even track and field has stopped taking that old approach. Track and field regularly expunges records and takes medals from big name athletes when steroids are connected to their name. Come on baseball, stop pretending anyone has hit more than 61 home runs not named Maris and stop pretending anyone has hit more than 755 career home runs not named Hank Aaron. It is insulting to Hank Aaron and insulting to the Maris family. Wipe steroid users from the record books completely or put an asterisk next to their name. Let steroid users live with their inner guilt and shame, but put rightful legends, such as Maris and Aaron, back on their deserved pedestal.

Danny Valencia for Third Baseman

Enough hemming and hawing, the future is now for Danny Valencia. The time has come to prove if he can hit and play third base in the Major Leagues. It isn't even a matter of if he will succeed or not anymore or whether he has the statistics to make the jump to the big club. Valencia just needs to play, make mistakes and the Twins need to hope he learns from his mistakes and becomes better, but at the big league level. The free agent market is drying up for third basemen plus the revolving door at many infield positions, such as third base, for the Twins cannot continue. Especially when many of the players they bring in as patchwork options are 32+ years in age. This organization needs to think of infield player development as their number one priority and fill in holes with free agents. It seems the Twins have taken the opposite approach the last few years. Look for free agents, then look for waiver wire fill ins. It's a policy that is destined for failure so put an end to it. Joe Crede, when healthy is possibly the finest fielding third basemen the Twins have had in their nearly 50 year history. Unfortunately, he is rarely healthy so why not bring him back and then hand over third base to Danny Valencia in mid-season. Is there risk in that plan? Possibly, but really it has much more potential for success than failure and it's remarkably simple. Danny Valencia is 24, bring him up now and by the time he's 27 you have a third baseman who is polished and ready to hopefully help carry a team. On the other hand, if the Twins sign a free agent third baseman this off season they are telling Valencia he isn't worth their effort. His trade value would be lower at that point and the team would be sending a negative message to the entire minor league organization. Danny Valencia has put in his time. He deserves to be the Minnesota Twins third baseman no later that July 1st.

Houston Jimenez, a Hall of Famer? Yes!

The year the Minnesota Twins became a part of my life was 1984. I was only 10 years old and the Twins were in an actual race to win their division. Now they are in contention every year it seems, but even my 10 year old brain knew having the Twins contend in 1984 was something unusual. The Twins didn't win the division, but two forces came together on that team that defy logic. Kirby Puckett, future Hall of Famer, Game 6 hero and player that would turn around the Twins franchise joined someone I remember as the worst baseball player I had ever seen: 135 pound shortstop Houston Jimenez. There was and still isn't any need to pour over statistics trying to find his redeeming value as a ball player. There are none, he was simply overmatched. Twins manager Billy Gardner kept playing him and my 10 year old mind kept asking why? How could I be so cynical in my young age? Let's review the career of Houston Jimenez:

• In 438 plate appearances Jimenez batted .185, with an OBP of .221 and SLG of .234. He never hit a home run. In 1984 he was rewarded with 317 plate appearances (why?) by the Twins. In 1984 alone he hit .201/.238/.245. He even commited 18 errors as well for good measure.
• He was involved in the infamous Dave Kingman popup that never came down in the Metrodome. Pictured below on that play he is half looking up and half ready to protect himself from a falling projectile that would never come.
• In short, he was a disaster in 1984 and Billy Gardner contributed greatly to the Twins losing the division championship by continually playing him. Recently, I was reading Baseball Prospectus' book "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" and came across a chapter detailing that close race in 1984 for the American League Western Division. The chapter spoke of Jimenez being a -12.0 VORP for the season and Gardner needing his defense in the game as long as he hits .250. Well that didn't happen and Houston Jimenez quickly faded from the game of baseball on the Major League level.

With some searching on Google it became surprisingly apparent that Houston Jimenez has managed quite well since that horrific 1984 season with the Twins. He went back into the Mexican League and played until 2001, making his career one of the longest in the history of the Mexican League. His Wikipedia page details his best year, "1995 was Jiménez's 4th .300 season in Mexico, with a career-high .337, .503 slugging and 40 doubles. He posted a .431 OBP and drove in 59 runs and drew 64 walks, career highs. After two decades as a generally poor offensive contributor, Jiménez even led the league in a category, posting the most doubles in the Mexican League." In 2007 Houston Jimenez, the career .185 hitter in the big leagues, was inducted into the Mexican Baseball Hall of Fame with a nod more towards his longevity and what he has contributed to the Mexican game of baseball than any superior skill. He even coached the Mexican World Baseball Classic team in 2009. Good for him!

I guess the 1984 Twins had two Hall of Famers on it's roster. Who can I blame that season on now? Of course, how could I forget...Ron Davis was our closer. He's not even in his High School Hall of Fame...is he?

In the Year 2000...

Ah yes, a new decade is here. Let's look back as Minnesota Twins fans to what our reality was in the year 2000. The Twins finished up their 8th straight losing season with a record of 69-93. Tom Kelly's act with young players was wearing extremely thin and the Twins were going nowhere, but really they were bound for something much worse than multiple 90+ loss seasons. That something was being eliminated after the 2002 season. Not from an otherworldly force, but by their very owner, Carl Pohlad with an assist from commissioner Bud Selig. Luckily the Twins received a favorable court ruling allowing them to play and they won their division in 2002 and then defeated the favored Oakland A's in a 5th and deciding game. That 5th game in Oakland was Brad Radke's greatest game in terms of being a bulldog when most believed the Twins would lose. The 2002 team jump started a new era of Twins baseball and should be thought of right behind the 1987 and 1991 teams in terms of franchise importance. Without the 2002 team succeeding the road for the Twins existence would have been difficult and murky at best. Since 2000 the Twins have won 5 division championships and put considerable distance between themselves and the dismal record they had from 1993 to 1999. Ron Gardenhire makes many of us scratch our heads at times, but he is a large reason why the team has done so well these past 10 years. Amazingly the Minnesota Twins are now looked upon as a model franchise other teams try to emulate. Yes, not too bad a decade at all.