Pavano for Pino?

On August 7th the Twins obtained Carl Pavano from the Cleveland Indians for a player to be named later. Typically when one thinks of a PTBNL it is not a pitcher in AAA who has evolved and become better as he rises through the minors and is on the verge of being called up to the big leagues. Yohan Pino is that kind of pitcher and a PTBNL in the Twins eyes. I have never seen Pino pitch and the first time I do will be with him wearing an Indians hat. That is unfortunate because Pino's career minor league numbers are strong. In 148 games, 66 of which were starts, he has an ERA of 3.27, WHIP of 1.15, he fans 8.1 batters per nine innings and has a K/BB ratio of 3.67. This year between Triple A and Double A Pino had his K/BB at 4.00 which is outstanding and the sign of a pitcher ready for the next step into the major leagues. With the Twins struggling for reliable pitching this is a move that hurts and seems unexplainable unless the Twins know something about Pino no one else does. Regardless, Twins fans first lost Johan and now they have lost Yohan. Let's hope the latter proves to be less painful.

Give Duensing and Bullpen Day a Chance

The Minnesota Twins have pitching problems. It's a problem the team didn't expect coming out of spring training, but it is here and has been for the better part of the season. The team is 4.5 games out of first place and has a 63-64 record. The pitching has been consistently inconsistent. It will most likely remain that way for the rest of the year. Instead of searching for a magic bullet to help ignite the pitching staff down the stretch, here is a "radical" suggestion.

The Twins should announce the starting rotation for the rest of the year as this: Baker, Blackburn, Pavano, Duensing and a Bullpen Day. Yes, a bullpen day. I'll explain later. The top 3 pitchers in that rotation will probably give you solid pitching the rest of the way. Brian Duensing has done everything the Twins have asked of him. He has spot started once, pitched in long relief and short relief with fairly positive results. His ERA as a starter is 3.60 in only ten innings and 5.34 as a reliever in 30.1 innings. He started 101 games in the minors with an ERA 3.61 and a WHIP of 1.28. Those numbers are solid and worth a look as a consistent starter. The Twins should consider anything over 5 innings a start as a bonus with Duensing. It is a job he is capable of.

Now the Bullpen Day. The team has had many bullpen days this year, but they weren't scheduled. Now they would be. Due to injuries and poor performances the Twins will not have five reliable starters at any point this year. They may not even have three right now. Gardenhire should do what Tony LaRussa did with his Oakland team briefly in the early/mid nineties and what the 2007 Colorado Rockies did as well. Designate a day in the rotation as Bullpen Day. Assign pitchers to certain innings through the 6th inning. Then turn the game over to the typical relievers that finish the game: Mijares, Guerrier and Nathan. Liriano and Perkins once healthy would be in the bullpen in this scenario. Either could start a game and go 2 or 3 innings, then give the ball for the next two innings to Manship or the half of the Liriano/Perkins combo that didn't start the game. Finally, pitch the fifth and sixth innings with whomever is fresh that day. Would the Twins do well under this system? No one knows, but it would bring some stability to the entire pitching staff. Baseball is a sport that seldom embraces change and the Twins franchise is no different. What are the chances the team changes their philosophy and adopts this "solution" to their pitching woes? Zero to none, but I would enjoy watching it as the team pushes for a division title.

Why Sacrifice?

In last night's game against the Baltimore Orioles Alexi Casilla came to the plate with Carlos Gomez on first and Delmon Young on second and no one out in the 6th inning. Casilla tried unsuccessfully to bunt the runners into scoring position. The Twins were fortunate he did not lay down the bunt because later in the at bat he laced a double off the baggy driving in Young and moving Gomez to third and kick starting a three run rally that tied the game at six. If Casilla had bunted the runners over it is possible the Twins don't win the game. Why does it make a difference? Using scoring expectation data from Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers it becomes evident why.

• With a runner on first and no out a team has a 41.7% chance of scoring. Bunting him over changes that scoring expectation to 41%. No scoring advantage gain.



• With runners on first and second and no outs a team has a 61.6% chance of scoring. Bunting the runners over changes the scoring expectation to 67.4%. An increase of about 6%.
  

Those that argue against the sacrifice bunt say it is giving up outs. When Casilla came to the plate the Twins only had 12 outs left in the game. It can be said bunting in Casilla's situation was the smartest strategic move according to the numbers. The team would have gained nearly a 6% better chance of scoring, but with only 2 sacrifices all year and the way Casilla is swinging the bat is it a risk worth taking? Many Twins fans would say no.

It's called a uniform for a reason

On Sunday night baseball it's another game in the ongoing (neverending) Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry. CC Sabathia is on the mound looking like he's ready to catch some ZZZ's. Why? Because of his massively oversized shirt and pants which resemble pajamas. He adjusts the ill fitting shirt on nearly every pitch. Nearly all players have taken the concept of a baseball uniform and destroyed the concept of uniformity. Everyone is wearing different length pants and tucking in their shirt in varying ways. Overall, players look sloppy. I remember players in the 70's and 80's required to show sock/stirrup everyday. Players looked professional. Teams have now let this trend slide so far it will be difficult to reverse course. As silly as this sounds the commissioner's office may have to institute a dress code to reign in sloppy attire. Players/teams, I'm ok with no socks showing, just have your pants stop near your shoes and tuck in your shirt. Look professional, not like you just popped some popcorn at 9:30 at night and are ready to relax on the couch before bed.

Matt Guerrier = MVP

Matt Guerrier came into his 301st MLB game last night needing 5 outs for a Twins victory and his first save of the year. With Nathan not available he was the best option available. He did give up a run, but preserved the Twins win. He never shows emotion, does the thankless work of a set up man and rarely has a poor day. As of August 23rd his Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) was 23.1 which made him the highest rated Twins pitcher in that category. Guerrier's VORP is ahead of Mariano Rivera, 22.5, and Jonathan Papelbon, 21.5. Not the company many fans think of when they see Matt Guerrier pitch. In fact, only Andrew Bailey of Oakland has a better VORP score for relievers at 28.4. Despite a down year for the Twins the team still has hopes for the playoffs. Without Guerrier those hopes may very well be non-existent and because of that he is the Twins MVP: Most Valuable Pitcher.