Blackburn, Perkins and the Magical 4.5 Strikeouts

In Bill James' nearly 1000 page book The Baseball Historical Abstract he has an article on page 289 detailing a simple statistic that determines a pitcher's effectiveness and career longevity. Does the pitcher have at least 4.5 strikeouts per 9 innings and/or is he close to the league average in the strikeouts per 9 innings category. Simply put James says to be an effective pitcher with the ability to stay in the majors for a substantial time a pitcher must have a K/9 ratio of 4.5 or better. You may look at any number of statistics in terms of a pitcher's ability, but the K/9 ratio tells the whole story. It's a story Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins may not want to read. Neither has shown the kind of strikeout ability that leads one to believe they will have long and successful careers. Last year Blackburn was thought of highly for having a promising rookie season which included going 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA and pitching brilliantly in the division tie breaking game versus the Chicago White Sox. Surely he would improve as a pitcher in the following seasons? Not necessarily. Last year his K/9 was 4.47 while the league average was 6.83. In other words the average pitcher was getting 2.36 more strikeouts per game than Blackburn was. In addition, opponents batted .292 against him compared to the league average of .265. His promising year may have been a result of the league never seeing him before and some luck. This year he has trended in the wrong direction. His K/9 has sunk to 4.00 (league average: 6.96) and opponents have hit .297 (league average: .263) off him. Strangely, Nick Blackburn may have peaked already as a pitcher. He can't be effective with the pitches he possesses right now. Not striking out at least 4.5 batters per nine innings will catch up to every pitcher. Unless Blackburn develops another pitch and increases his strikeout totals he has a limited future. The Twins would be wise to trade him now while his value is highest. All of the above can be applied to Glen Perkins as well. His K/9 in 2008 was 4.41 and this year it is 4.20. Has he pitched well consistently? No, and injuries have now become a part of who he is. The Twins would be wise to move him as well. Feel free to read Bill James' article concerning the magical 4.5 strikeouts number, but James has done the heavy lifting regarding the research. Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins should not be a part of the Twins future plans. The simple number 4.5 explains why.