
Saturday, February 19, 2011
A Look at Twins Shortstops From a UZR Perspective

Wednesday, January 26, 2011
New Twins HOF Member: Jim Perry

Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Nick Punto: Best Twins Utility Player Ever

Let Alexi Casilla Be Himself
So Alexi Casilla is going to start at either second base or shortstop when the Twins open the 2011 season. I guess I can live with that, even though I feel JJ Hardy was a better option with a better bat, better glove, better arm... OK, Alexi Casilla can be successful, but he has to be allowed to play everyday. Ron Gardenhire has a tendency with Casilla to push the abort button far too quickly. He can't do that this year. Nick Punto is gone and Matt Tolbert can't be justified as being better than Casilla in anyway. Gardenhire needs to let Casilla become piranha-like: annoying and quick. He has to bunt, chop at the ball and become an aggressive base stealer. Casilla's been successful in 35 of 39 stolen base attempts in the majors (90% success rate). In the minors he stole 164 bases in 220 attempts (75% success rate, hey, he was still learning). Let him run, let him steal 40+ bases, let him irritate teams this year. I seem to remember Twins executives and the manager explaining how they wanted more speed on the team. Casilla can be that speed guy as long as he's allowed to play and even make some mistakes. Alexi Casilla deserves this full time opportunity, let's hope the plug doesn't get pulled on him too soon.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Einstein and the 2011 Twins

Give Lastings Milledge a Chance

Thursday, October 14, 2010
Carl Pavano's Future

Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Thankless Job: Middle Relief
I've watched baseball since 1984 and something that should've been obvious has finally dawned on me. Pitching effectively in middle relief is the most thankless and difficult job in baseball. Last night Jim Thome finished off the most dramatic game played so far at Target Field with a towering game winning home run. It was possible because of failed starting pitching by Scott Baker and ineffective middle relief work. How many great middle relievers can you name? Off the top of my head in the American League it's Matt Thornton, Grant Balfour, Jesse Crain (the last few months), Daniel Bard, Joaquin Benoit and Darren O'Day. That's a short list. Great closers make the job of pitching look easy. Middle relievers at times make the job of pitching look precariously similar to mine deactivation. Not many are effective consistently and rarely are they recognized for being good at what they do. Yes, Rauch struggled again last night, but all in all the Twins core of middle relievers are among the best in baseball and will be the key to making it to the playoffs and deep into the postseason.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
The Apocalypse Doesn't Include Drew Butera

Monday, March 22, 2010
Twins' Mount Rushmore Has an Addition: Joe Mauer

Sunday, March 21, 2010
This Pain is Good for Twins Fans

Sunday, March 7, 2010
The Twins' Catch 22%
I hope fifth grade math doesn't trip up the Minnesota Twins. If their payroll is near $100 million and they pay Joe Mauer roughly $22 million that's 22% of the team's salary going to one player. It's not difficult math, but a little mind numbing at the same time. The Twins are stuck in the proverbial Catch-22. Not signing Mauer destroys their image in the minds of fans and players around the league, trading him would get nowhere near equal value in return and signing him financially hamstrings the team possibly for 10 years, but they must sign him. Baseball is a business, but a business where emotions still play a part in decision making. Minnesota sports fans are born with fragile emotions. Losing Mauer to the Yankees would be the baseball equivalent of an atomic bomb directed at the fanbase. If he wants 10 years then Twins have to sign him for 10 years. No one is excited to pay a catcher $20+ million when he's 34 years old, but the hand the Twins have been dealt is drafting and developing one of the best catchers ever. Is 22% of a payroll too much to pay just one player out of 25? Yes, but after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana the Minnesota Twins have no choice.Saturday, March 6, 2010
Mike Maroth's Final Call

The Mysterious Fifth Outfielder
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Brad Radke vs. Camilo Pascual

While listening and writing into the entertaining Fanatic Jack's podcast on Wednesday night the topic of Brad Radke's greatness was brought up. While Radke was a fine pitcher I felt there had to be pitchers of the same or better caliber than him that played for the Twins. I threw the name of Camilo Pascual into the discussion and created a short debate on the merits of each pitcher. Neither person running the podcast had much background on Pascual. How unfortunate. The Minnesota Twins are 50 years into their existence. Fans cannot lose track of those players that played decades ago. They were very talented and represented the team well. Camilo Pascual is an excellent example of that. Even though Camilo may object, let's put him under the microscope briefly.
Let's start a comparison with ERA+. Radke had a career of ERA+ of 112, while Pascual had a 103 for his career. Now let's look at Camilo's years with the Twins only. His Twins only ERA+ averages out to 114. He spent 7 years as a Senator and another 6 with the Twins. Some of his most dominant years were in Minnesota.
- For 3 years from 1961-1963 Pascual led the AL in strikeouts with: 221, 206 and 202
- From 1961-1964 he won 15, 18, 18 and 14 games.
- In 1961 he had 8 shutouts and followed that up with 5 in 1962.
- His ERA+ numbers from 1961 through 1966: 123, 123, 149, 109, 106 and 74 (yikes!).
Brad Radke had pinpoint control as we all know. He led the league with 1 walk per 9 innings in 2001 and over the course of his career posted an outstanding 1.6 walks per 9 innings. Pascual cannot compare here. He averaged 3.3 walks per nine innings and never averaged below 2.4 walks per 9 innings during his career. I could analyze Brad Radke further, but why? Radke just doesn't have the league leading numbers that Camilo did in some areas for even a short amount of time. Breaking down Brad Radke's numbers show him to be a slightly above average pitcher as his ERA+ of 112 shows. He was 12% above league average over the course of his career while Pascual was 14% better than league average while in a Twins uniform. I will take Camilo Pascual because of his league leading strikeout numbers for that 3 year stretch from 1961 through 1963. I admit it's close and Radke was part of an important Twins group that resurrected life back in to the franchise, but Camilo Pascual was better. His dominance was greater despite it being short lived.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Cardboard Insights

Thursday, February 18, 2010
Alexi Casilla Has His Own Favre

Friday, February 12, 2010
Nick Punto Can't Stop Fate

Saturday, February 6, 2010
Best Twins Team of My Lifetime

Saturday, January 30, 2010
No More Adventures In Leftfielding?

I was listening to AM 1500's broadcast of Twinsfest on Saturday and was struck by an interview that took place with Twins leftfielder Delmon Young. When the topic of if Young would miss the Metrodome was asked he was very clear that he never could see the ball against the roof and especially during day games. Young didn't just say one sentence, but was empathic in his dislike for the roof and how it caused him problems seeing the ball. Could moving outdoors transform Delmon Young from a very poor leftfielder to just a poor leftfielder? Was the Metrodome roof Delmon Young's kryptonite? All kidding aside the days of seeing him as an unwatchable force with a glove may be over. Look at these statistics regarding Delmon Young's fielding.
- In 2006 Young played 30 games/252 innings in right field. This is a small sample size, but his UZR/150 was 17.9. This is the runs above average he was rated per 150 games played. Delmon is seen as an above average outfielder in his first season.
- In 2007 Young played 133 games/1,134 innings in right field. With an appropriate sample size his defensive issues were shown, but only to a tune of 3.0 for his UZR/150. Delmon is rated a slightly above average outfielder here. Young also played 29 games/242.2 innings in centerfield. He must have been a disaster because he had a (shield the children's eyes)UZR/150 of -44.7! I'm assuming he was moved to right field after this and then traded to the Twins in the offseason.
- In 2008 the Twins moved Young to left field under the teflon sky of the Metrodome. He played 151 games/1,324 innings there. His UZR/150 plummeted to -14.9. Delmon can no longer be considered an average fielder, he's letting an additional 15 runs to score a year.
- In 2009 Young continues to play left field where he logs 98 games/806.2 innings. A severe cut in playing time, but the UZR/150 continues to go the wrong direction stopping at an eye averting -25.6! Unbelievably he let 25 runs score that shouldn't have.
It may be hard to conceive, but young Delmon has gone from a +3 runs above average outfielder to a -25.6 runs below average statue. Is it possible he can take baby steps and become a UZR/150 -10.0 outfielder by just moving outside to Target Field? I think he can, but if he can't it may be time to put his glove wherever the White Sox put Frank Thomas' glove years ago.