Carl Pavano's Future

Carl Pavano is a free agent. He'll be looking for a 2 year contract. I don't think the Twins should give him it. One year I'd be fine with, but I feel his gas tank is low. Something tells me getting another year like he had this year would be a tall order. The second half this year had him getting hard more often than fans would like to see. The signs are there. Although, at 34 years of age he's not ancient and his ERA+ this year was 111, his highest since 2004. The Twins still need to be careful here, a two year contract may be seen as a given by most fans, but I'd allocate those dollars elsewhere. That second year could have the Twins paying on a commodity they get little value from.

Thankless Job: Middle Relief

I've watched baseball since 1984 and something that should've been obvious has finally dawned on me. Pitching effectively in middle relief is the most thankless and difficult job in baseball. Last night Jim Thome finished off the most dramatic game played so far at Target Field with a towering game winning home run. It was possible because of failed starting pitching by Scott Baker and ineffective middle relief work. How many great middle relievers can you name? Off the top of my head in the American League it's Matt Thornton, Grant Balfour, Jesse Crain (the last few months), Daniel Bard, Joaquin Benoit and Darren O'Day. That's a short list. Great closers make the job of pitching look easy. Middle relievers at times make the job of pitching look precariously similar to mine deactivation. Not many are effective consistently and rarely are they recognized for being good at what they do. Yes, Rauch struggled again last night, but all in all the Twins core of middle relievers are among the best in baseball and will be the key to making it to the playoffs and deep into the postseason.

The Apocalypse Doesn't Include Drew Butera

Some very knowledgeable Minnesota Twins fans spent 7 hours on Twitter yesterday debating the merits of Wilson Ramos and Drew Butera for the backup catching duties to start this season. This topic deserved seven hours of back and forth typing on the computer? While that fact alone may be a sign of the Apocalypse, Drew Butera being named the Twins backup catcher is not. Remember he isn't going to be the backup the entire season. Switch hitting Jose Morales will be back. Don't worry. It may take 8 weeks for Morales to heal, but he will return, I promise. Drew Butera may get 10 at bats in a week if he's lucky. This may go down as 10 weekly at bats his .214/.296/.317 career minor league line says he doesn't deserve, but it's not the end of the world. You won't get any argument from me, he probably doesn't deserve those 10 at bats, but you also won't get any argument from me if Wilson Ramos had made the team either. Ramos is a superb defensive catcher and can hit around .290, but he's only 21 years old. In addition, he has played only 65 games above single A. Some refining and gaining experience are most likely in order. In a perfect world the Twins would like Drew Butera to at least hit his weight, which is 205. If he doesn't then what? More back and forth typing on this rather dull topic? I'll pass. Don't forget, many clubs have their own Drew Buteras. We should be lucky our Drew Butera is only staying temporarily.

Twins' Mount Rushmore Has an Addition: Joe Mauer

As expected Joe Mauer has signed for the Minnesota Twins. He will be paid $23 million a year for the next 8 years. His $184 contract is the 4th largest in baseball history. While everyone is pleased that Mauer is now under contract the deal will eventually be questioned if the Twins don't surround him with an adequate supporting cast. The hope is that his contract doesn't keep the team from pursuing top shelf players. Only time will tell on that one. Short of 1987 and 1991 has there ever been a better time to be a Minnesota Twins fan? Fans have a new stadium, the team has finally gone out and signed players to fill spots who are not leftovers from the free agency market and Joe Mauer is under contract until he is 35. The only rain cloud is Joe Nathan's injury and that is a sizeable rain cloud, but let's not dwell on the negative. By signing with the Twins, Mauer has put himself forever in the top tier of Minnesota sports legends. You now have Killebrew, Puckett and Mauer occupying a very small space atop the Minnesota sports mountain. It's difficult to name any sports individual who has played in this town that would bump any of those three down a notch. Fran Tarkenton, Kent Hrbek, Alan Page, Kevin Garnett, Neal Broten and even George Miken can't do it. The Minnesota Twins have their own Mount Rushmore and Joe Mauer is the newest addition.

This Pain is Good for Twins Fans

This morning Joe Nathan played catch with pitching coach Rick Anderson. The session was short lived as Nathan felt pain in his elbow. It was determined he will have Tommy John surgery and his baseball career for the next 12-18 months is now in flux. In an odd way his feeling pain this morning is a good thing. Imagine if he had felt nothing as he threw and then went back into a somewhat regular pitching routine. He would have done more damage and likely prolonged his recovery time. Now the team has a concrete plan and timetable in place to treat the injury. Next for them is solving who will close this year and next year. I'm against the Twins trading prospects Wilson Ramos or Ben Revere for San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell. Bell has had only one year as closer. His 42 saves last season showed he may be made for the job, but I don't like that weight has been an on going issue for him. I feel the Twins should go in-house for their closer solution. I'm not opposed to having a young arm eventually get the job this year or most likely next year. Arms such as Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney or Alex Burnett should be the focus of any future closer talk for the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins' Catch 22%

I hope fifth grade math doesn't trip up the Minnesota Twins. If their payroll is near $100 million and they pay Joe Mauer roughly $22 million that's 22% of the team's salary going to one player. It's not difficult math, but a little mind numbing at the same time. The Twins are stuck in the proverbial Catch-22. Not signing Mauer destroys their image in the minds of fans and players around the league, trading him would get nowhere near equal value in return and signing him financially hamstrings the team possibly for 10 years, but they must sign him. Baseball is a business, but a business where emotions still play a part in decision making. Minnesota sports fans are born with fragile emotions. Losing Mauer to the Yankees would be the baseball equivalent of an atomic bomb directed at the fanbase. If he wants 10 years then Twins have to sign him for 10 years. No one is excited to pay a catcher $20+ million when he's 34 years old, but the hand the Twins have been dealt is drafting and developing one of the best catchers ever. Is 22% of a payroll too much to pay just one player out of 25? Yes, but after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana the Minnesota Twins have no choice.

Mike Maroth's Final Call

Like many baseball careers Mike Maroth is not in control of when the end comes. It usually arrives like the suddenness of a 2:00 AM phone call. Maroth is a a left handed starting pitcher the Minnesota Twins have invited to spring training with a history of arm and knee injuries. He wants to avoid that final call that ends a career, but when you are a 33 year old finesse pitcher with a career ERA of 5.05 and a record of 50-67 the end is knocking. A coaching position at the lower levels of the sport beckons. Maroth's only notable resume item doesn't help matters, which is being the last pitcher to lose 20 games (21 games exactly) as he did on the 2003 Detroit Tigers. There's no doubt Mike Maroth came to Twins came looking to impress and hope his softly tossed arsenal of pitches could land him the final spot in the bullpen. Praying his left arm could last a few weeks longer and act as if it is ten years younger than it is was his goal. The body seldom cooperates in such matters and the brain soon follows which leads us to the 6th inning of the first spring training game against the Boston Red Sox. The Twins are leading 1-0 in what is a meaning less game for most players in uniform. For Mike Maroth this game is anything but meaningless, his career and future rest on the first impression he gives the Twins' coaching staff during this brief one inning of work. That first impression may also be the last impression he makes. Maroth yielded in succession a double, a walk then an RBI single to tie the game. A double play bailed him out of further damage. Double plays save innings, but not careers. Mike Maroth may end up pitching for the Twins AAA Rochester Red Wings, but his final pitch is nearly here. Spring training is suppose to be a time for optimism, but for aging pitchers like Mike Maroth it's a reality check they'd rather not face.

The Mysterious Fifth Outfielder

As a fan when the largest debate on your favorite baseball team is who will be the fifth outfielder good things are in store for you. That is where the Minnesota Twins are. Fans are concerned, writers have something to write about, but really it's not as large a problem as many make it seem. Yesterday Ron Gardenhire announced Michael Cuddyer would be the primary backup when Span needs a rest. The Twitter boards lit up saying he's bad enough in right field why give him more ground to cover? I was even involved in a short debate with people who felt Delmon Young was a better outfielder than Cuddyer. You can throw all the numbers at me that support that argument and I will never believe it. Delmon Young is an outfielder who is diametrically opposed to anything that resembles a straight line, especially when that straight line is towards a fly ball. Cuddyer is the better outfielder and it's not close. Alexi Casilla in yesterday's game already alligator armed a fly ball by the warning track so his future will most likely remain in the infield. Matt Tolbert was once a centerfielder so there remains hope he can play that position competently. As John Madden would say Nick Punto is Nick Punto. He can do no wrong, especially with a glove so Gardy will not hesitate to put him out there if need be. Jacque Jones was the early frontrunner for the backup backup outfielder, but his inability with the lumber the last two years hurts him, but he does have the former Twin badge which will take him to at least the last cut in spring training. So what do we have?

Alexi Casilla: Out of the running and maybe not on the Twins opening day roster.

Delmon Young: Unable to patrol left field, never considered.

Michael Cuddyer: Playing centerfield won't create the defensive quadmire many believe.

Matt Tolbert: Dark horse, hustles in Punto-like fashion and knows his ability to play any position will keep him the majors. He may win by a nose from the outside.

Nick Punto: I think his task will be mainly infield related this season. Punto is like Gardy's blanky, he needs him close by. Outfield is too far away.

Jacque Jones: Twins nice in play here, if he hits and shows some range he can win the spot. Past two years show this may be unlikely.

The Winner: Just like Tic Tac Toe there is no winner here, but that fifth outfield spot will be Cuddyer's and Tolbert's. They are more than capable of handling this opportunity and hopefully will not wake up the echoes of Rich Becker patrolling centerfield.

Brad Radke vs. Camilo Pascual

While listening and writing into the entertaining Fanatic Jack's podcast on Wednesday night the topic of Brad Radke's greatness was brought up. While Radke was a fine pitcher I felt there had to be pitchers of the same or better caliber than him that played for the Twins. I threw the name of Camilo Pascual into the discussion and created a short debate on the merits of each pitcher. Neither person running the podcast had much background on Pascual. How unfortunate. The Minnesota Twins are 50 years into their existence. Fans cannot lose track of those players that played decades ago. They were very talented and represented the team well. Camilo Pascual is an excellent example of that. Even though Camilo may object, let's put him under the microscope briefly.

Let's start a comparison with ERA+. Radke had a career of ERA+ of 112, while Pascual had a 103 for his career. Now let's look at Camilo's years with the Twins only. His Twins only ERA+ averages out to 114. He spent 7 years as a Senator and another 6 with the Twins. Some of his most dominant years were in Minnesota.

• For 3 years from 1961-1963 Pascual led the AL in strikeouts with: 221, 206 and 202
• From 1961-1964 he won 15, 18, 18 and 14 games.
• In 1961 he had 8 shutouts and followed that up with 5 in 1962.
• His ERA+ numbers from 1961 through 1966: 123, 123, 149, 109, 106 and 74 (yikes!).

Brad Radke had pinpoint control as we all know. He led the league with 1 walk per 9 innings in 2001 and over the course of his career posted an outstanding 1.6 walks per 9 innings. Pascual cannot compare here. He averaged 3.3 walks per nine innings and never averaged below 2.4 walks per 9 innings during his career. I could analyze Brad Radke further, but why? Radke just doesn't have the league leading numbers that Camilo did in some areas for even a short amount of time. Breaking down Brad Radke's numbers show him to be a slightly above average pitcher as his ERA+ of 112 shows. He was 12% above league average over the course of his career while Pascual was 14% better than league average while in a Twins uniform. I will take Camilo Pascual because of his league leading strikeout numbers for that 3 year stretch from 1961 through 1963. I admit it's close and Radke was part of an important Twins group that resurrected life back in to the franchise, but Camilo Pascual was better. His dominance was greater despite it being short lived.

Cardboard Insights

Every February for the past 26 years I look forward to a simple tradition. The opening of a new Topps baseball card pack. What will the new design look like? How good will the photography be? It's simply fun and for me the opening of that pack is the opening of the baseball season. This year as I opened my first pack I came upon Randy Johnson's card. It's a beautiful card of him lunging and throwing in one motion to first base after what I'm assuming is a bunt attempt. A difficult maneuver for a 6'11 person at age 45. Then I realized this is the last regular baseball card Randy Johnson will ever have. I flip to the back and in small print is a career that began in 1988. The numerous statistics in red indicate he led the league in that category and there are amazingly 28 of them. Anybody can go to the internet and look up a player's career statistics, but in this age of technology and instant communication a baseball card still holds tremendous insight into the quality of a player's career. To hold 20 some odd years of work in your hand crystallizes a career. As I looked at the card I realized Randy Johnson was a rarity. A player of enormous talent who dominated hitters for prolonged stretches in overpowering ways. Of course I knew he was a great pitcher, a Hall of Fame pitcher in fact, but seeing his entire career as the numbers bounce off each other on the back of that baseball card I realized I may never see a pitcher like him again. Did I realize he was a once in a lifetime player as I watched him? Not really. It's odd how players you grow up with or players you watch currently often seem very good, but it isn't until they retire and you reflect on their historical standing in the game does their true greatness come out. A baseball card helps this process happen. Randy Johnson is the greatest left handed pitcher ever. Did I comprehend that until I looked at that one final card of his? Surprisingly I didn't. A baseball card while small, fragile and for the young, is still enormously insightful and entertaining. I guess I was luckier to get that Randy Johnson card than I originally thought.

Alexi Casilla Has His Own Favre

Alexi Casilla needs to become what Tarvaris Jackson was on the Minnesota Vikings this past season, a young player willing to sit and learn as a veteran plays his position for a season. No Brett Favre isn't going to play second base, but Orlando Hudson will. Casilla has had 903 plate appearances in a Twins uniform for a .244/.301/.314 line. His career OPS+ of 66 puts him 34% below where an average hitter would be. Defending him especially after batting .202 last year is difficult. Even his fielding is hard to justify. Surprisingly he has been -9.2 runs below average over the course of his short career. Some fielding metrics even have him as the worst fielding second baseman in the American League. Unfortunately, it can be said the Minnesota Twins spent all of last year trying to overcome the hole his poor performance left at second base. Just an average year by Casilla would have avoided putting the Twins in a Game 163 situation. They would have likely won the division outright by 2 games, but instead he batted .202. Needless to say, our friend Alexi is on the hot seat. Despite all this I feel the Twins would be wrong to cut or trade him. He's only 24...yes, just 24 and he won't turn 25 until July! He has above average speed, has had big moments in a Twins uniform and more importantly his minor league record indicates he's much better than what we've seen. In 1,809 minor league plate appearances Casilla had a line of .298/.371/.375. If those numbers regress 10% in the majors he becomes a .269/.334/.338. player. Yes, those are very average numbers and the slugging is frightening, but some potential shows. The 2010 season should be Alexi Casilla watching how Orlando Hudson plays professionally at second base, runs the bases, and approaches each at bat. Let Hudson play the same role Brett Favre played this year for his backup quarterbacks. Alexi Casilla needs the tutelage of a veteran player. 2010 is the final year for him to be a student.

Nick Punto Can't Stop Fate

Nick Punto has lived a charmed life, but it's just starting. His life is the life any of us would take if given the opportunity. Professional baseball player, father, husband and multi millionaire, but his destiny is more than that. There is something about Punto that makes one think he is more than just a player on the Minnesota Twins. His cosmic importance is more than we can comprehend. He is like a character on the TV show Lost. His importance is clear to those behind the scenes, but the rest of us try each day to figure what his value is in the grand scheme of the Minnesota Twins. Each game is a new episode for us. We either question his relevance or our eyes are opened to the skills he's capable of bringing to a winning ball club. He can be the good guy when he's throwing a runner out at home in the late innings of game 163 or the bad guy who runs through a stop sign at third base in the playoffs and is easily thrown out trying get back. Nick Punto is like many other people around us: Who are the good guys and who are the bad guys? Fans are left with that question nightly with his up and down play. Nick Punto's role with the Minnesota Twins is far from over. In the future once his playing days are over he will move into management and work his way up through the organization making his mark at every level. His destiny lies as manager of the Twins. Who will be there when Joe Mauer's number is retired? Manager Punto. Who will be there when the Twins win the 2025 World Series? Manager Punto. Nick Punto can't stop fate, he will always be a Minnesota Twin. Fans can try and disrupt his timeline, but everyone's fate is irreversibly cast. Nick Punto will be a part of our lives for a very long time to come.

Best Twins Team of My Lifetime

The above title may not be an overstatement. We have watched a front office go from settling for free agents that had glaring imperfections to one that is putting nearly a $100 million payroll on the field for the 2010 season. I was born in 1973, began following the Minnesota Twins in 1984 and this is the best Twins team I have seen going into the season. Of course there was the championship teams of 1987 and 1991, but going into spring training expectations were tempered for those clubs. The 2010 version of the Minnesota Twins looks like a team that should capture the division, win a playoff series and maybe even do more. Expectations are high and they should be. When a batting order of Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Hardy and Punto are ready to go most nights along with having Jim Thome able to pinch hit or start when needed you are looking at a team that should win 4 to 5 games a week. The rotation isn't top heavy with talent, but full of pitchers who will win 12-15 games and Liriano is lurking, teasing fans with reports of a return of his 2006 form. So it's easy to see why optimism is so high for fans and players of the team. As long as the injury bug stays away and multiple players don't choose to have down years the Minnesota Twins will win 93-95 games and hit 190-210 home runs. In addition, they will win the division, win the ALDS in five games and represent the American League in the World Series. Will they win the World Series? Luck needs to be on one's side for that to happen and luck is unpredictable. Let's just say the Minnesota Twins will go to the World Series and open Target Field in style with the best team they've put together since I've followed the team. Nothing more can be expected at this point.

No More Adventures In Leftfielding?

I was listening to AM 1500's broadcast of Twinsfest on Saturday and was struck by an interview that took place with Twins leftfielder Delmon Young. When the topic of if Young would miss the Metrodome was asked he was very clear that he never could see the ball against the roof and especially during day games. Young didn't just say one sentence, but was empathic in his dislike for the roof and how it caused him problems seeing the ball. Could moving outdoors transform Delmon Young from a very poor leftfielder to just a poor leftfielder? Was the Metrodome roof Delmon Young's kryptonite? All kidding aside the days of seeing him as an unwatchable force with a glove may be over. Look at these statistics regarding Delmon Young's fielding.

• In 2006 Young played 30 games/252 innings in right field. This is a small sample size, but his UZR/150 was 17.9. This is the runs above average he was rated per 150 games played. Delmon is seen as an above average outfielder in his first season.
• In 2007 Young played 133 games/1,134 innings in right field. With an appropriate sample size his defensive issues were shown, but only to a tune of 3.0 for his UZR/150. Delmon is rated a slightly above average outfielder here. Young also played 29 games/242.2 innings in centerfield. He must have been a disaster because he had a (shield the children's eyes)UZR/150 of -44.7! I'm assuming he was moved to right field after this and then traded to the Twins in the offseason.
• In 2008 the Twins moved Young to left field under the teflon sky of the Metrodome. He played 151 games/1,324 innings there. His UZR/150 plummeted to -14.9. Delmon can no longer be considered an average fielder, he's letting an additional 15 runs to score a year.
• In 2009 Young continues to play left field where he logs 98 games/806.2 innings. A severe cut in playing time, but the UZR/150 continues to go the wrong direction stopping at an eye averting -25.6! Unbelievably he let 25 runs score that shouldn't have.

It may be hard to conceive, but young Delmon has gone from a +3 runs above average outfielder to a -25.6 runs below average statue. Is it possible he can take baby steps and become a UZR/150 -10.0 outfielder by just moving outside to Target Field? I think he can, but if he can't it may be time to put his glove wherever the White Sox put Frank Thomas' glove years ago.

Projecting Home Runs For the 2010 Minnesota Twins

Jim Thome's massive swings will now be a part of the upcoming Minnesota Twins season. His signing started me thinking about the number of home runs the team would hit this year. I believe Thome will get 400 plate appearances this season, which is more than many fans feel he will see. Here are how each player will fair in terms of hitting home runs along with their increase or decrease in home runs from last year. Far from scientific, but then again what projection is scientific?

Denard Span: 8 (+0)
JJ Hardy: 22 (+11)
Joe Mauer: 23 (-5)
Justin Morneau: 29 (-1)
Jason Kubel: 30 (+2)
Michael Cuddyer: 24 (-8)
Delmon Young: 9 (-4)
Brendan Harris: 4 (-2)
Nick Punto: 1 (+0)
Jim Thome: 21 (-2)
Bench: 8

Projected 2010 team total: 179 home runs

The team's 2009 total was 172 home runs so 2010 should see a slight increase in home runs. If Target Field becomes a favorable park for hitters these numbers could increase to possibly 190 still a far cry from the club record of 225 home runs hit by the Twins in 1963. Needless to say facing the Twins this year will be a difficult task for pitchers because most of the lineup will be able to drive the ball especially when Thome is in the lineup. Replace Harris with Danny Valencia at third base and add about 10 additional home runs from his bat alone. Finally, if Target Field proves to be hitter friendly and a few Twins add onto the home run totals I projected above fans will be following a team that will have hit over 200 home runs in 2010. That should put more than enough runs on the board for the team to win 90+ games.

Really...Again?

It happened again? Yes, Viking fans took repeated punches to the gut with another winning field goal in overtime, an interception with only seconds remaining, fumble after fumble and a crushing 12 men on the field penalty. I thought the pieces were in place this time. Brett told me that over and over on the radio. I guess they were, but the Vikings kept dropping them. Are the Minnesota Vikings a cursed team? No, just a football team that can't make that one big play to seal the deal. It's been thirty-three long years since a Super Bowl trip. What agony awaited them if they had made the journey? Actually, the most painful part is I feel the Vikings would have beaten the Colts in the Super Bowl. Instead we have five straight painful NFC Championship losses in a row for the group of purple. Others before us have been down this inglorious road. In 1977 former Star Tribune columnist Jim Klobuchar wrote a book after the Vikings lost to the Raiders in the Super Bowl titled "Will the Vikings Ever Win the Super Bowl?" That question can now be answered...unfortunately no. The Vikings are the Red Sox before 2004. That is our fate.

Twins Greatest Hitting Seasons #41-50

Yes, this was supposed to be a continuing segment a few months ago and I left off at #45. My short attention span didn't get me very far the first time, so I will shorten the commentary and simply present the facts. What are the facts? I looked at the OPS+ numbers for each Twins season and simply ranked hitters from one to fifty since we are approaching the 50th season of Twins baseball. OPS+ is an effective way of gauging how effective a hitter is because it takes batting average and slugging percentage and puts it into a nice number that can be judged on how far it is away from 100, which is the number an average hitter would earn. The difficulty of hitting in a particular season or the inverse being how easy it was to hit in a season is factored in. This makes comparing how Harmon Killebrew hit in 1967 (OPS+ of 174) to Kirby Puckett in 1991 (OPS+ of 119) easy. Killebrew was a whopping 74% better than the average hitter in 1967 and Puckett, while great in 1991, was only 19% better than the average hitter. Killebrew crushes him in the comparison. Two final notes, I had 500 plate appearances as the minimum to qualify in these rankings and any OPS+ ties were resolved by looking at the regular OPS number which is the addition of the OBP and SLG.

• #41 Harmon Killebrew 1972/OPS+ 138: The last decent year the Killer had. Put up .231/.367/.450 along with 26 HR and 74 RBI. He did walk 94 times showing pitchers were still preoccupied with thoughts of clouts from his past.
  
• #42 Justin Morneau 2008/OPS+ 137: Hit 23 HR and had 129 RBI. His overall .300/.374/.499 line hides a .267 second half batting average. Did play in all 163 games.


• #43 Joe Mauer 2008/OPS+ 137: Rebounded from a subpar for him year in 2007 to have a .328/.413/.451 season. He walked 84 times, led the league in hitting and had a season that he'll probably duplicate many more times in his career.


• #44 Tony Oliva 1970/OPS+ 137: Tony had league leading 204 hits and 34 doubles. Had a rare injury free season in playing 157 games. Hit 23 HR and had 107 RBI with a .325/.364/.514. Twins won division and Oliva came in 2nd in MVP voting.


• #45 Jimmie Hall 1963/OPS+ 136: Forgotten Twin by many fans because this season was his best as a pro. As a rookie hit 33 HR and had 80 RBI to go along with .260/.342/.521. Despite this great year Hall finished just 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting. His 33 HR in his rookie season without a single at bat in any previous season is still an American League record.
  
• #46 Tony Oliva 1966/OPS+ 136: Despite ranking high in many of the American League statistical categories and leading the AL in hits for the third year in a row, Oliva slumped down the stretch. He took a batting average in the .320s into August, but endured a 5 for 41 slump in August. 1966 was another year of personal accolades for Oliva. He won his first and only Gold Glove of his career for his play in right field, he was a member of the American League All Star team and came in 6th in the MVP voting. His final line was: .307/.353/.502.


• #47 Justin Morneau 2009/OPS+ 135: Despite batting just .201 in 174 at bats after the All Star break Justin Morneau still had the 48th best season at the plate in team history. Fans may disagree since they can still recall many disappointing at bats Morneau had in the second half of the season in addition with his missing the last three weeks of the season with a stress fracture in his back. With that said, his first half statistics are what carries his season into the top 50 in team history. In that first half Morneau batted: .311/.390/.575 with 21 home runs, 70 RBI and 44 walks, but ended with .274/.363/.516.

• #48 Bob Allison 1967/OPS+ 135: The statistics right handed batter Bob Allison put up in 1967 may not seem that remarkable in the offense orientated era baseball currently finds itself in, but they stand out in Twins' history. The Twins as a team in 1967 batted .240 and that was third best in the American League behind Detroit at .243 and Boston with .255. The average American League team batting average in 1967 was .236, a far cry from the AL average of .267 for 2009. 1967 was close to the bottoming out for hitters or the pinnacle for pitchers depending on how you look at it. In 1968 the American League average for batting was .230 and the result was the mound was lowered to reduce some of the advantage pitchers had and the strike zone was reduced. All of these considerations need to be looked at when analyzing Bob Allison's terrific .258/.356/.470 for the 1967 season.


• #49 Earl Battey 1963/OPS+ 134: The 1963 season is Battey's only appearance in the top 50 hitting seasons in team history. In 1963 he was an All Star and came in 7th in the MVP voting. In his career Battey was a 3 time Gold Glove winner and 4 time All Star. In the 1965 All Star game at Metropolitan Stadium he received the most votes of any American League All Star and finished the year with a .285/.369/.476 line.

• #50 Tony Oliva 1969/OPS+ 133: Tony Oliva was third in the AL with a batting average of .309, was named an All Star. His final numbers were: .309/.355/.496. Despite winning 97 games the Twins fell to the eventual World Series champions Baltimore Orioles in the League Championship Series 3-0 in games. Oliva's bat was not the problem in the ALCS. He batted .385/.429/.769 with one home run in the series.

Anthony Slama: Let the Audition Begin

Obviously Minnesota Twins minor league pitching sensation Anthony Slama has made someone in the front office angry. His minor league numbers are staggering, but as of now at age 25 he has not pitched an inning in the Major Leagues. Rather ridiculous when you think of the pitching difficulties the Twins faced last season. The 6'3"Slama must get ample time with the big club this year or he should be traded while he still has value. Joe Nathan is under contract for the Twins through 2011 with a club option for 2012 at a hefty $12.5 million. At that point Nathan will be 37 and price and age should make him expendable. By then Anthony Slama should have spent two years in the Twins' bullpen adjusting to Major League hitting and getting ready to move into the closer role in 2012. It's a job Slama has been training for throughout the minor leagues and with amazing success. Here are his statistics as a bullpen stopper in the minors:

13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and 3.66 K/BB ratio. The walks have been going the wrong way the last 2 years though.

WHIP of 1.04 for career and an ERA of 1.86, but again ERA has gone the wrong way the last two years at around 2.50.

Slama has given up 5.7 hits per 9 innings pitched.

He's given up only 5 home runs in 183.2 innings pitched and all of those came last year.

Rotoexperts.com is quoted as saying, "Slama’s repertoire includes a slider, changeup and his out pitch, an 88-92 MPH fastball." That fastball needs another 3-4 mph for him to fit the closer role ideally. A strike against him.

The lack of a Nathan like 95 mph fastball is a real concern. That isn't something that can be developed. His slider is his admitted out pitch, but without seeing it I doubt it reminds anyone of Steve Carlton's. Despite these issues Slama should get a real chance to pitch with the Twins in 2010. If the next two years proves he's not capable of filling the closer role, go in another direction, but at least let the experiment begin this season.

Guessitimating the Minnesota Twins 2010 Win Total

There are many ways of predicting how players and teams will perform in the upcoming season. Even experts agree projecting player performance is more guess work than science. So in what is a very unscientific method of determining future performance I looked at the Minnesota Twins starting pitchers and how statistic guru Bill James has projected them to do this year. I took his numbers and then went with what my gut said each pitcher will have for total wins by the end of the season. Again, this is guesstimating and just for fun. Bill James' projections are in parenthesis for starting pitchers only.

• Kevin Slowey: 14 wins (11-10)
• Scott Baker: 15 wins (12-10)
• Carl Pavano: 10 wins (10-12)
• Nick Blackburn: 12 wins (11-12)
• Fransisco Liriano: 10 wins (8-6)
• Jon Rauch: 4 wins
• Joe Nathan: 2 wins
• Jose Mijares: 2 wins
• Matt Guerrier: 3 wins
• Brian Duensing: 8 wins
• Jesse Crain: 2 wins
• Pat Neshek: 2 wins
• Others: 7 wins

This would be a 91 win season for the Twins and most likely good enough to win their division. The team would have an increase of 5 wins over their 2009 record before the extra win from game 163 is factored in. The one glaring issue I have with these projections is envisioning getting 18 wins from a Liriano/Duensing combination. I can see 14 wins much easier from them, but without really knowing what the rotation will look like who knows? To get to 91 wins the pitching will obviously need to be strong and consistant, but eliminating the offensive black hole at second base is a must and solidifying third base is a close second. Runs need to be scored to break the 90 wins plateau or the Twins will quickly become an 85 win team fighting for a playoff spot.

It's Time To Do the Right Thing

Mark McGwire now admits using steroids throughout his career including the 1998 season when he broke Roger Maris' single season home run record of 61. Credit McGwire for going public and admitting his guilt, but he is just part of an era that has torn the game of baseball down in such historic fashion there is nothing to compare it to. At this point Major League Baseball needs to do the right thing and return the single season home run record back to Roger Maris' 61 home runs. This is where the record should be and what many fans view as the true record anyway. Stop playing the innocent until proven absolutely, positively guilty game and then still doing nothing. Even track and field has stopped taking that old approach. Track and field regularly expunges records and takes medals from big name athletes when steroids are connected to their name. Come on baseball, stop pretending anyone has hit more than 61 home runs not named Maris and stop pretending anyone has hit more than 755 career home runs not named Hank Aaron. It is insulting to Hank Aaron and insulting to the Maris family. Wipe steroid users from the record books completely or put an asterisk next to their name. Let steroid users live with their inner guilt and shame, but put rightful legends, such as Maris and Aaron, back on their deserved pedestal.

Danny Valencia for Third Baseman

Enough hemming and hawing, the future is now for Danny Valencia. The time has come to prove if he can hit and play third base in the Major Leagues. It isn't even a matter of if he will succeed or not anymore or whether he has the statistics to make the jump to the big club. Valencia just needs to play, make mistakes and the Twins need to hope he learns from his mistakes and becomes better, but at the big league level. The free agent market is drying up for third basemen plus the revolving door at many infield positions, such as third base, for the Twins cannot continue. Especially when many of the players they bring in as patchwork options are 32+ years in age. This organization needs to think of infield player development as their number one priority and fill in holes with free agents. It seems the Twins have taken the opposite approach the last few years. Look for free agents, then look for waiver wire fill ins. It's a policy that is destined for failure so put an end to it. Joe Crede, when healthy is possibly the finest fielding third basemen the Twins have had in their nearly 50 year history. Unfortunately, he is rarely healthy so why not bring him back and then hand over third base to Danny Valencia in mid-season. Is there risk in that plan? Possibly, but really it has much more potential for success than failure and it's remarkably simple. Danny Valencia is 24, bring him up now and by the time he's 27 you have a third baseman who is polished and ready to hopefully help carry a team. On the other hand, if the Twins sign a free agent third baseman this off season they are telling Valencia he isn't worth their effort. His trade value would be lower at that point and the team would be sending a negative message to the entire minor league organization. Danny Valencia has put in his time. He deserves to be the Minnesota Twins third baseman no later that July 1st.

Houston Jimenez, a Hall of Famer? Yes!

The year the Minnesota Twins became a part of my life was 1984. I was only 10 years old and the Twins were in an actual race to win their division. Now they are in contention every year it seems, but even my 10 year old brain knew having the Twins contend in 1984 was something unusual. The Twins didn't win the division, but two forces came together on that team that defy logic. Kirby Puckett, future Hall of Famer, Game 6 hero and player that would turn around the Twins franchise joined someone I remember as the worst baseball player I had ever seen: 135 pound shortstop Houston Jimenez. There was and still isn't any need to pour over statistics trying to find his redeeming value as a ball player. There are none, he was simply overmatched. Twins manager Billy Gardner kept playing him and my 10 year old mind kept asking why? How could I be so cynical in my young age? Let's review the career of Houston Jimenez:

• In 438 plate appearances Jimenez batted .185, with an OBP of .221 and SLG of .234. He never hit a home run. In 1984 he was rewarded with 317 plate appearances (why?) by the Twins. In 1984 alone he hit .201/.238/.245. He even commited 18 errors as well for good measure.
• He was involved in the infamous Dave Kingman popup that never came down in the Metrodome. Pictured below on that play he is half looking up and half ready to protect himself from a falling projectile that would never come.
• In short, he was a disaster in 1984 and Billy Gardner contributed greatly to the Twins losing the division championship by continually playing him. Recently, I was reading Baseball Prospectus' book "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" and came across a chapter detailing that close race in 1984 for the American League Western Division. The chapter spoke of Jimenez being a -12.0 VORP for the season and Gardner needing his defense in the game as long as he hits .250. Well that didn't happen and Houston Jimenez quickly faded from the game of baseball on the Major League level.

With some searching on Google it became surprisingly apparent that Houston Jimenez has managed quite well since that horrific 1984 season with the Twins. He went back into the Mexican League and played until 2001, making his career one of the longest in the history of the Mexican League. His Wikipedia page details his best year, "1995 was Jiménez's 4th .300 season in Mexico, with a career-high .337, .503 slugging and 40 doubles. He posted a .431 OBP and drove in 59 runs and drew 64 walks, career highs. After two decades as a generally poor offensive contributor, Jiménez even led the league in a category, posting the most doubles in the Mexican League." In 2007 Houston Jimenez, the career .185 hitter in the big leagues, was inducted into the Mexican Baseball Hall of Fame with a nod more towards his longevity and what he has contributed to the Mexican game of baseball than any superior skill. He even coached the Mexican World Baseball Classic team in 2009. Good for him!

I guess the 1984 Twins had two Hall of Famers on it's roster. Who can I blame that season on now? Of course, how could I forget...Ron Davis was our closer. He's not even in his High School Hall of Fame...is he?

In the Year 2000...

Ah yes, a new decade is here. Let's look back as Minnesota Twins fans to what our reality was in the year 2000. The Twins finished up their 8th straight losing season with a record of 69-93. Tom Kelly's act with young players was wearing extremely thin and the Twins were going nowhere, but really they were bound for something much worse than multiple 90+ loss seasons. That something was being eliminated after the 2002 season. Not from an otherworldly force, but by their very owner, Carl Pohlad with an assist from commissioner Bud Selig. Luckily the Twins received a favorable court ruling allowing them to play and they won their division in 2002 and then defeated the favored Oakland A's in a 5th and deciding game. That 5th game in Oakland was Brad Radke's greatest game in terms of being a bulldog when most believed the Twins would lose. The 2002 team jump started a new era of Twins baseball and should be thought of right behind the 1987 and 1991 teams in terms of franchise importance. Without the 2002 team succeeding the road for the Twins existence would have been difficult and murky at best. Since 2000 the Twins have won 5 division championships and put considerable distance between themselves and the dismal record they had from 1993 to 1999. Ron Gardenhire makes many of us scratch our heads at times, but he is a large reason why the team has done so well these past 10 years. Amazingly the Minnesota Twins are now looked upon as a model franchise other teams try to emulate. Yes, not too bad a decade at all.